Having Worked It Out


This is something I’ve been wanting wait I mean trying not just idly wanting to write for some time now. I’m still not sure as I write these opening lines how it’s going to look on paper it being the messy idea I have which I don’t mind saying I think is quite perceptive.


OK I am thinking of possibility probability likelihood and what that’s got to do with believability plausibility reasonability and by those terms naturally I refer to anything on a gradable scale featuring those qualities.


I am indebted to Daniel Kahneman and Mischa Barton for helping me sort this out.

Watching the movie Lawn Dogs the other day well why shouldn’t I it dawned on me that the story was highly unlikely at every turn but utterly plausible which is fine but the problem is that although it was plausible it was unlikely and it’s the order you see it’s the order.


Daniel Kahneman is the author of Thinking, Fast and Slow which is a great bestselling book about making choices decisions mistakes and believing what we possibly shouldn’t and Mischa Barton stars in Lawn Dogs which is about jumping to conclusions which is basically the same thing.


The girl’s reasoning is flawed yes we know that but it explains perfectly why she behaves so irrationally so we accept as reasonable or do I mean rational what happens even the dreamy sequence at the end when the water improbably floods over the bridge and the forest impossibly engulfs the road so Trent can escape not just in Devon’s imagination oh you have to see this film.


I’d like to wind up this post with a quote from the ineffable Moe Szyslak : “It’s like my dad always said, eventually everybody gets shot”.

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